A whimsical monsoon is likely to add to government expenditure as states will have to be reimbursed for free power supplied to farmers and a spike in prices of pulses may add to food inflation.
PMO said the monsoon season rainfall is likely to be 92% of the long-term average (LPA), less than the 96% LPA predicted in June that itself was a downgrade from the 98% LPA May forecast. "IMD predicted rainfall to be normal at 96% with an error of plus-minus 4%, but this is now reportedly likely to be around the lower end of the range," it said.....
A whimsical monsoon is likely to add to government expenditure as states will have to be reimbursed for free power supplied to farmers and a spike in prices of pulses may add to food inflation. Food minister K V Thomas told ToI that drought is impending in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka and western Rajasthan.
Emergency measures add to the government's concerns over a slowing economy although massive buffer stocks — currently thrice the levels usually maintained — means there should be no crisis in food supplies. But added expenditure and a dip in farm productivity adds to the Centre's fiscal burden.
The government said it is in "full readiness" with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh asking his office to monitor the progress of the kharif season on a weekly basis. "There is a reduction of eight million hectares in crop area sown compared to last year," the release says.
Thomas feels rice production will not be majorly impacted. "Food grain production and sugarcane will remain more or less the same. The problem is with pulses and oilseeds. These are the two crops, where production will come down," he said.
The announcement ends official ambiguity over the state of monsoon with PMO noting the progress of the rains so far "has not allayed earlier concerns" and pointing to states that need particular attention. The statement, however, says that while water reservoirs are 78% normal, the situation is improving.
Sowing of coarse grains like millet, jowar and ragi is short by 30 lakh hectares compared to normal and this is unlikely to be made up, although PMO hopes that the deficit in rice, the main kharif food grain crop, can be addressed.
Concerned over the paddy crop in Haryana, Punjab and UP, the PMO has said 300mw of extra power will be made available to ensure the yield is not affected. During the 2009 drought, free power to farmers allowed extraction of groundwater which along with canal supplies saved the crops. Late September rains had also aided the yields.
Although Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) allows for a 4% plus-minus error in its predictions, PMO has spelt out this year rainfall is likely to be at the lower end of the range or around 92% of LPA.
Stating the current 22% deficit can be "misleading", the government said unevenness of distribution and periodicity of rainfall are also factors that matter as the next week to 10 days could prove critical to the progress of sowing. But it does seem the record 257 million tonne food grain production recorded in 2011-12 will be hard to replicate.
Measures taken include making available "submergence resistant" seeds for states like Assam grappling with floods, drought-resistant varieties elsewhere and advisories on preservation of crop residue for likely fodder shortages. Seeds for fodder crops like maize, sorghum and bajra would be made available.
