Pakistan’s Supreme Court on Tuesday disqualified PM Yousaf Raza Gilani as a member of parliament plunging the country into political crisis.
NEW DELHI: Pakistani politics has entered the theatre of the absurd. Yousuf Raza Gilani's disqualification as the Prime Minister ofPakistan raises more questions than it answers. And, also plunges the Pakistani system into a morass that appears endless.
"It's a menu of very bad options," says Sushant Sareen of Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses.
In April, Gilani was convicted by the court that should have disqualified him, but the Speaker of the National Assembly determined that he would not be disqualified. Tuesday's decision, coming in the midst of a series of scandals that envelop even the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Iftikhar Chaudhry, not only raises eyebrows about its timing, but also pits Parliament against the judiciary.
But it's unlikely the entire political class is willing to take on the judiciary. The PPP is expected to name a new PM soon, with names like Makhdoom Shahbuddin and Ahmed Mukhtar swirling around. The latter, according to sources, has a better chance, thanks to his closeness to the president Asif Zardari. The decision, said sources, needs to be taken before Zardari leaves forRussia on Wednesday. For this decision, PPP may have to make yet more unsavoury concessions to its coalition partners like MQM and ANP. The ruling party has seen its popular sympathy, which appeared to have improved after Gilani's conviction, reduce significantly. But Tuesday's crisis is not about to led to the government collapsing immediately.
This is helped by the fact that the PPP government has virtually washed its hands off governance. An acute power shortage and a tanking economy have sharply reduced the party's cache among the electorate. Thus, it would not like to flout the Supreme Court's directives any further for fear that the court could resort to the old trick of asking the army to sack the government.
But this is only a temporary reprieve. Pakistan analysts point to the greater likelihood of the government calling for fresh general elections in 2013. The poll dates could be announced as early as October. At that time, they anticipate a fresh crisis. "As a result of the 20th amendment passed recently, the ruling party and the opposition would have to agree on a caretaker government until the elections. In the present atmosphere, I don't see Zardari and Nawaz Sharifagreeing on anything," said Rana Banerji, who follows Pakistan's internal politics. They would also have to appoint a new Election Commission may prove to be equally difficult. If they fail, this too could end at the court's doorstep, making it an enormous political player.
Chaudhry, too, has been singed. His apparent incorruptibility has been challenged by the revelations that his son, Arsalan, has been trading favours with Malik Riaz Bahria, a prominent contractor. Whether he knew of his son's dealings, whether he had been complicit or ignorant is largely immaterial now. The dirt has stuck. This might mean that Chaudhry could find the going tough on his campaign against the Baloch missing persons.
Besides, if a new PM is appointed, he too would be expected to send the same letter to the Swiss authorities on Zardari's corruption cases. If he, like Gilani, refuses to comply, is Chaudhry going to remove him as well?
The Pakistani media, otherwise fearless, and doing a great job against many odds, have found themselves in the vortex of the storm sweeping the system. Many say the media has been discredited after it appeared in a leaked video that two TV anchors seemed to be conducting a planted interview of the contractor, Malik Riaz, who has accused Chaudhry's son of corruption.
If they too are made to look tainted, the army and ISI may be the only institution to benefit from the current crisis. The army no longer enjoys the same cache as it did earlier, and "Memogate" even caught the ISI on the back foot. There is an outside chance of a situation developing where they may feel "compelled" to intervene to "save" the country, put some decisions on the table, repair the economy and relations with the US. But, the army may not find the same "acceptability" as they did in earlier coups.
As the latest in a series of crises, it would seem that Pakistan's cup runneth over. For months now, Pakistan's various state institutions have been at each other's throats, ready to tear each other to shreds —a series of scams, Memogate, Bahriagate, and even Mediagate — are designed to squash the credibility of all voices.
Besides, Islamic terrorism continues to rage in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA regions, organized crime and sectarian violence is rocking Karachi, a full-blown insurgency is underway in Balochistan, its economy is in a mess and its ties with its chief ally, the US, worsens everyday.
"It's a menu of very bad options," says Sushant Sareen of Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses.
In April, Gilani was convicted by the court that should have disqualified him, but the Speaker of the National Assembly determined that he would not be disqualified. Tuesday's decision, coming in the midst of a series of scandals that envelop even the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Iftikhar Chaudhry, not only raises eyebrows about its timing, but also pits Parliament against the judiciary.
But it's unlikely the entire political class is willing to take on the judiciary. The PPP is expected to name a new PM soon, with names like Makhdoom Shahbuddin and Ahmed Mukhtar swirling around. The latter, according to sources, has a better chance, thanks to his closeness to the president Asif Zardari. The decision, said sources, needs to be taken before Zardari leaves forRussia on Wednesday. For this decision, PPP may have to make yet more unsavoury concessions to its coalition partners like MQM and ANP. The ruling party has seen its popular sympathy, which appeared to have improved after Gilani's conviction, reduce significantly. But Tuesday's crisis is not about to led to the government collapsing immediately.
This is helped by the fact that the PPP government has virtually washed its hands off governance. An acute power shortage and a tanking economy have sharply reduced the party's cache among the electorate. Thus, it would not like to flout the Supreme Court's directives any further for fear that the court could resort to the old trick of asking the army to sack the government.
But this is only a temporary reprieve. Pakistan analysts point to the greater likelihood of the government calling for fresh general elections in 2013. The poll dates could be announced as early as October. At that time, they anticipate a fresh crisis. "As a result of the 20th amendment passed recently, the ruling party and the opposition would have to agree on a caretaker government until the elections. In the present atmosphere, I don't see Zardari and Nawaz Sharifagreeing on anything," said Rana Banerji, who follows Pakistan's internal politics. They would also have to appoint a new Election Commission may prove to be equally difficult. If they fail, this too could end at the court's doorstep, making it an enormous political player.
Chaudhry, too, has been singed. His apparent incorruptibility has been challenged by the revelations that his son, Arsalan, has been trading favours with Malik Riaz Bahria, a prominent contractor. Whether he knew of his son's dealings, whether he had been complicit or ignorant is largely immaterial now. The dirt has stuck. This might mean that Chaudhry could find the going tough on his campaign against the Baloch missing persons.
Besides, if a new PM is appointed, he too would be expected to send the same letter to the Swiss authorities on Zardari's corruption cases. If he, like Gilani, refuses to comply, is Chaudhry going to remove him as well?
The Pakistani media, otherwise fearless, and doing a great job against many odds, have found themselves in the vortex of the storm sweeping the system. Many say the media has been discredited after it appeared in a leaked video that two TV anchors seemed to be conducting a planted interview of the contractor, Malik Riaz, who has accused Chaudhry's son of corruption.
If they too are made to look tainted, the army and ISI may be the only institution to benefit from the current crisis. The army no longer enjoys the same cache as it did earlier, and "Memogate" even caught the ISI on the back foot. There is an outside chance of a situation developing where they may feel "compelled" to intervene to "save" the country, put some decisions on the table, repair the economy and relations with the US. But, the army may not find the same "acceptability" as they did in earlier coups.
As the latest in a series of crises, it would seem that Pakistan's cup runneth over. For months now, Pakistan's various state institutions have been at each other's throats, ready to tear each other to shreds —a series of scams, Memogate, Bahriagate, and even Mediagate — are designed to squash the credibility of all voices.
Besides, Islamic terrorism continues to rage in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA regions, organized crime and sectarian violence is rocking Karachi, a full-blown insurgency is underway in Balochistan, its economy is in a mess and its ties with its chief ally, the US, worsens everyday.
