The death this week of al-Qaida's deputy leader, Abu Yahya al-Libi , is likely to accelerate a shift in power from the group's dwindling leadership in Pakistan to its increasingly autonomous franchises, particularly the branch in Yemen, whose focus on attacking American interests is sure to continue, according to United Statescounterterrorism officials.
For now, Ayman al-Zawahri , Qaida's nominal leader , still holds the broad influence that he has consolidated since Osama bin Laden's death last year. But the hierarchical structure of global jihad may be loosening a bit. Libi's death in a drone strike has torn at the connective tissue between the group's embattled leadership in Pakistan and its far-flung affiliates across the Middle East and Africa. Libi's killing may even augur increased violence as younger, more impetuous fighters vie to seize mantle of global leadership, analysts say.
Osama Bin Laden himself, in the documents that US navy SEALs recovered from his house in Abbottabad, Pakistan, worried about "the rise of lower leaders who are not as experienced and this would lead to the repeat of mistakes."
American counterterrorism officials said Libi had played a pivotal role as the organization's theological traffic cop, enforcing a unified message and ensuring that younger fighters in the affiliates did not go off the rails.
Senior Qaida leaders worried, for instance, about attacks that killed Muslim civilians.
"He kept the movement on track, on message and in line," said Jarret Brachman, author of "Global Jihadism" and a consultant to the US government about terrorism.
"Al-Qaida's global movement cannot endure without an iron-fisted traffic cop."
Even with the network's operatives in Pakistan under siege, al-Qaida's wings in Yemen, North Africa and even Iraq have had little difficulty sustaining a wave of violence, a trend that is likely to continue after Libi's death, officials said.
For now, Ayman al-Zawahri , Qaida's nominal leader , still holds the broad influence that he has consolidated since Osama bin Laden's death last year. But the hierarchical structure of global jihad may be loosening a bit. Libi's death in a drone strike has torn at the connective tissue between the group's embattled leadership in Pakistan and its far-flung affiliates across the Middle East and Africa. Libi's killing may even augur increased violence as younger, more impetuous fighters vie to seize mantle of global leadership, analysts say.
Osama Bin Laden himself, in the documents that US navy SEALs recovered from his house in Abbottabad, Pakistan, worried about "the rise of lower leaders who are not as experienced and this would lead to the repeat of mistakes."
American counterterrorism officials said Libi had played a pivotal role as the organization's theological traffic cop, enforcing a unified message and ensuring that younger fighters in the affiliates did not go off the rails.
Senior Qaida leaders worried, for instance, about attacks that killed Muslim civilians.
"He kept the movement on track, on message and in line," said Jarret Brachman, author of "Global Jihadism" and a consultant to the US government about terrorism.
"Al-Qaida's global movement cannot endure without an iron-fisted traffic cop."
Even with the network's operatives in Pakistan under siege, al-Qaida's wings in Yemen, North Africa and even Iraq have had little difficulty sustaining a wave of violence, a trend that is likely to continue after Libi's death, officials said.
