In an interview with ET Now, Nandan Chakraborty, MD-Institutional Equity Research, Enam Securities, gives his views on their latest strategy report. Excerpts:
ET Now: Let us start the interview with your strategy report dated 4th of June, titled 'Surviving this austerity'. I read the strategy report over the weekend and I am bit surprised that the first page of the report is not about analysis, it is about poetry?
Nandan Chakraborty: There are times one has to learn from the lessons from the past to see what sorts of mistakes have been made in the past and therefore what do you learn from them. History obviously does not repeat itself at times. So first part of the entire strategy report is what you learnt from phases like that given the past. But one of the key lessons is that we have had much worse times before. So this is not necessarily the worst time that we are having and this too shall pass. We have had horrible periods.
I remember many of these periods in the past when people felt like getting out of India, and so on. This is definitely not the worst time we have and things unravel from a vicious cycle into a virtual cycle often enough in various decades. So one of the points was the rupee, CAD, that is the current account deficit, and the fiscal deficit, all move badly at a particular period of time. Things go bad and all again recover. As a matter of fact, our own estimate for the rupee is that it will be in the low 50s by the end of this financial year. So this is one of the lessons.
ET Now: So what are the key triggers that will make us actually way through this storm?
Nandan Chakraborty: One is external, one is internal. The nature of the democracy and the institutions that we have is that we will not accumulate too much money at a single level like dictators do and so on. So the ire will usually be against the system rather than personality and which is why you will always have media like yourself. It is a very important part of places like us which will collate the thoughts of the democracy and put it forward to politicians. So sooner or later what will happen, the self correcting mechanisms will keep starting. So, one trigger is internal.
Politicians also need various segments of voters to be able to move forward. So that is the internal part of it and the external part of it is even though our GDP growth has been low and things are getting worse and so on, at the end of the day we worry about the next few years. So things will unravel at a point in time and when that happens, things will again come to a pass.
ET Now: Let us start the interview with your strategy report dated 4th of June, titled 'Surviving this austerity'. I read the strategy report over the weekend and I am bit surprised that the first page of the report is not about analysis, it is about poetry?
Nandan Chakraborty: There are times one has to learn from the lessons from the past to see what sorts of mistakes have been made in the past and therefore what do you learn from them. History obviously does not repeat itself at times. So first part of the entire strategy report is what you learnt from phases like that given the past. But one of the key lessons is that we have had much worse times before. So this is not necessarily the worst time that we are having and this too shall pass. We have had horrible periods.
I remember many of these periods in the past when people felt like getting out of India, and so on. This is definitely not the worst time we have and things unravel from a vicious cycle into a virtual cycle often enough in various decades. So one of the points was the rupee, CAD, that is the current account deficit, and the fiscal deficit, all move badly at a particular period of time. Things go bad and all again recover. As a matter of fact, our own estimate for the rupee is that it will be in the low 50s by the end of this financial year. So this is one of the lessons.
ET Now: So what are the key triggers that will make us actually way through this storm?
Nandan Chakraborty: One is external, one is internal. The nature of the democracy and the institutions that we have is that we will not accumulate too much money at a single level like dictators do and so on. So the ire will usually be against the system rather than personality and which is why you will always have media like yourself. It is a very important part of places like us which will collate the thoughts of the democracy and put it forward to politicians. So sooner or later what will happen, the self correcting mechanisms will keep starting. So, one trigger is internal.
Politicians also need various segments of voters to be able to move forward. So that is the internal part of it and the external part of it is even though our GDP growth has been low and things are getting worse and so on, at the end of the day we worry about the next few years. So things will unravel at a point in time and when that happens, things will again come to a pass.
